{"id":14060,"date":"2024-09-26T10:21:29","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T08:21:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/barcelonafinanceschool.com\/iefbfs-market-forecast-12a-edicio\/"},"modified":"2024-09-26T10:34:34","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T08:34:34","slug":"iefbfs-market-forecast-12a-edicio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barcelonafinanceschool.com\/ca\/iefbfs-market-forecast-12a-edicio\/","title":{"rendered":"IEF&BFS Market Forecast, 12a edici\u00f3"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflaci\u00f3 i geopol\u00edtica: experts de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast analitzen els efectes de les pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries, les eleccions als Estats Units, la macroeconomia i les valoracions de les companyies en l’economia global i les inversions<\/strong><\/h2>

En la 12a edici\u00f3 de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast, organitzada per la Barcelona Finance School i celebrada el 19 de setembre en la Borsa de Barcelona, destacats especialistes en finances han debatut com els esdeveniments geopol\u00edtics clau afectaran l’economia global, les relacions internacionals i els mercats durant l’\u00faltim trimestre de 2024<\/em><\/p>

Dijous 19 de setembre, en la Borsa de Barcelona, s’ha celebrat la 12a edici\u00f3 de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast, organitzada per la Barcelona Finance School<\/strong>, on s’ha analitzat com els pr\u00f2xims esdeveniments geopol\u00edtics, incloses les eleccions presidencials als Estats Units, impactaran l’economia global, les relacions internacionals i els mercats durant l’\u00faltim trimestre de 2024.<\/strong> A m\u00e9s, s’ha abordat l’evoluci\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3, les pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries dels bancs centrals i les oportunitats d’inversi\u00f3<\/strong> en un context d’incertesa geopol\u00edtica i econ\u00f2mica.<\/p>

Inflaci\u00f3 sota control, per\u00f2 sense arribar a l’objectiu<\/strong><\/h2>

Marc Ciria<\/strong>, soci fundador i president executiu de Diagonal Asset Management, ha destacat la import\u00e0ncia de realitzar un diagn\u00f2stic prec\u00eds de la situaci\u00f3 actual. Encara que s’ha indicat que la inflaci\u00f3 sembla estar baix control, Ciria ha advertit que no s’aconseguir\u00e0 l’objectiu del 2% enguany: \u00abSeran necess\u00e0ries m\u00e9s mesurades per a aconseguir-ho, i no han d’esperar-se de manera r\u00e0pida.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

Mentre els EUA continua creixent a ritmes del 2%\/ 3%, Europa t\u00e9 un creixement an\u00e8mic que gaireb\u00e9 no aconsegueixi l’1%, amb la locomotora Alemanya \u201cgripada\u201d i la Xina creixent per sota de la seva velocitat de creuer en tan sols un 4,7%. Malgrat aix\u00f2, s’ha destacat que el consum continua sent fort en comparaci\u00f3 amb altres indicadors que mostren signes de feblesa, tant als Estats Units com a Europa. Sobre la situaci\u00f3 a la Xina, s’ha advertit que invertir en aquest pa\u00eds presenta dificultats: \u00abEs registren p\u00e8rdues, encara que parlar de recessi\u00f3 seria precipitat.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

En relaci\u00f3 a la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria, s’ha elogiat l’estrat\u00e8gia de la Reserva Federal per a equilibrar la inflaci\u00f3 i el mercat laboral, per\u00f2 s’ha advertit sobre els riscos d’una r\u00e0pida baixada de tipus d’inter\u00e8s: \u00abEl mercat de renda fixa ofereix oportunitats, especialment en bons corporatius, per\u00f2 no hem d’esperar baixades r\u00e0pides ni nombroses en els tipus.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

Moderaci\u00f3 en el creixement i millora a llarg termini<\/h2>

D\u00eddac P\u00e9rez,<\/strong> director d’inversions de la gestora de Caixa Enginyers, ha emfatitzat la moderaci\u00f3 del creixement econ\u00f2mic global despr\u00e9s de la pand\u00e8mia, especialment a Europa. No obstant aix\u00f2, s’ha projectat un futur m\u00e9s positiu: \u00abLa inflaci\u00f3 est\u00e0 descendint gradualment gr\u00e0cies a les pol\u00edtiques dels bancs centrals, la qual cosa ens acosta a l’objectiu del 2%.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

S’ha destacat que, malgrat la reducci\u00f3 de marges empresarials a Europa, s’espera una millora en els beneficis cap a 2024-2025. Tamb\u00e9 s’ha ressaltat la bona salut financera de les empreses, que estan adoptant una major disciplina en l’assignaci\u00f3 de capital, i s’han vist oportunitats en sectors com les energies renovables: \u00abEncara que els mercats s’han sobreescalfat, les valoracions a nivell global continuen sent atractives, especialment en sectors emergents com les renovables i el consum de luxe.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

Protegint el patrimoni en temps de canvi<\/h2>

Juan Carlos Canudo<\/strong>, director general i soci de Solventis, ha ofert una perspectiva sobre com els inversors poden protegir el seu patrimoni en entorns de canvi monetari. S’ha destacat la import\u00e0ncia de mantenir una exposici\u00f3 a la renda variable per a superar la inflaci\u00f3 a llarg termini: \u00abHist\u00f2ricament, la renda variable ha estat l’actiu que millor ha resistit els canvis monetaris.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

No obstant aix\u00f2, s’ha assenyalat que les valoracions de la renda variable actualment s\u00f3n exigents i s’ha suggerit equilibrar les carteres amb m\u00e9s renda fixa per a obtenir rendiments sostenibles: \u00abLes expectatives de rendibilitat en bossa s\u00f3n m\u00e9s modestes, per\u00f2 els bons ofereixen oportunitats atractives que poden superar la inflaci\u00f3 a mitj\u00e0 termini.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>

<\/div>
La jornada en imatges<\/a><\/div><\/div>
<\/div>

En conclusi\u00f3, despr\u00e9s d’una \u00e0gil, divertida i excel\u00b7lent direcci\u00f3 de l’esdeveniment per part del moderador Josep Ramon Aixel\u00e0<\/strong>, responsable de macroeconomia i mercats financers de la Barcelona Finance School i gestor\/analista independent d’inversions, els experts de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast han subratllat la necessitat d’una gesti\u00f3 prudent de les inversions enfront dels actuals desafiaments macroecon\u00f2mics: principalment la inflaci\u00f3, el creixement econ\u00f2mic, les pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries i els riscos geopol\u00edtics. S’ha fixat la mirada en els sectors emergents, com les energies renovables, i en actius financers com la renda fixa corporativa de qualitat, que han estat identificats com a factors i objectius crucials per a les decisions d’inversi\u00f3 en els pr\u00f2xims mesos.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflaci\u00f3 i geopol\u00edtica: experts de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast analitzen els efectes de les pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries, les eleccions als Estats Units, la macroeconomia i les valoracions de les companyies en l’economia global i les inversions En la 12a edici\u00f3 de l’IEF&BFS Market Forecast, organitzada per la Barcelona Finance School i celebrada el 19 de setembre en la Borsa de Barcelona, destacats especialistes en finances […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[81],"tags":[112],"class_list":["post-14060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticies","tag-inversio"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIEF&BFS Market Forecast, 12a edici\u00f3 - Barcelona Finance School<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/barcelonafinanceschool.com\/ca\/iefbfs-market-forecast-12a-edicio\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IEF&BFS Market Forecast, 12a edici\u00f3 - 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